Models To Predict Cardiovascular Disease Risk In Vietnam

Thai Nguyen, Vietnam & Groningen, the Netherlands – The burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is increasing worldwide, including in Vietnam. To make the best use of limited resources, planning of health care interventions is important. Predictive modeling of the risk of CVD can render valuable information for planning these interventions.

A team of researchers from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands and Thai Nguyen University of Medicine and Pharmacy in Vietnam conducted a screening campaign for hypertension and collected related variables in a rural mountainous area in Vietnam. Three models – Asian, Chinese Multiple-Provincial Cohort Study (CMCS) and Framingham – were applied to estimate cardiovascular risk in the coming years in this context, and models and outcomes were compared.

While appropriate models have not been clarified yet for the Vietnam population, comparing and identifying the most appropriate model to predict cardiovascular disease in a rural area in Northern Vietnam is valuable.

The results showed that there were no significant differences between the Asian and CMCS models, but differences were highly significant when comparing the Asian vs. Framingham or CMCS vs. Framingham models.

Professor M.J. Postma, PhD, project leader, and Thi Phuong Lan Nguyen, MA, primary researcher on the study say that, “Results suggest that for the specific Vietnam setting, the Asian and CMCS models might be most suitable to predict CVD, rather than the Framingham. Further analyses using real-life data will be made to further investigate this.”

The full study, “Models to predict the burden of cardiovascular disease risk in a rural mountainous region of Vietnam,” is published inValue in Health Regional Issues, Volume 3.


Value in Health Regional Issues (ISSN 2212-1099) is a scientific journal that encourages and enhances the science of pharmacoeconomic/health economic and health outcomes research and its use in health care decisions. The journal is published up to three times a year with one issue focusing on the Asia region, one issue focusing on the Latin America region, and one issue focusing on the Central & Eastern Europe, Western Asia and Africa regions.

The International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) is a nonprofit, international, educational and scientific organization that strives to increase the efficiency, effectiveness, and fairness of health care resource use to improve health.

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